Approvability and revenue forecasts in Adis R&D Insight

Beginning August 1, 2009, Adis R&D Insight drug profiles will start to include inThought Approvability Index and Worldwide Revenue Forecasts as a replacement for the Lehman Market Analysis. The addition of the inThought team in January 2009 provided the capabilities required to develop this information internally using Wolters Kluwer Pharma Solution’s portfolio of data assets while providing our clients with unparallel transparency behind the forecasts as well as access to the analyst team to answer quick questions.

InThought Team

The inThought team brings together the vast data assets and resources available at Wolters Kluwer Pharma Solutions with a combined 30 years of healthcare modeling experience to provide a portfolio of products and services to both the financial and pharmaceutical markets. Dr. Ben Weintraub and Dr. Leon Henderson lead the inThought team and have collaborated over the past nine years to develop inThought’s proprietary forecasting models.

·         Ben Weintraub, PhD is the Director of Research for inThought and has a background in immunology and biochemistry.

·         Leon Henderson, MD is a Medical Consultant for inThought in addition to working as a clinical geneticist in Internal Medicine and Medical and Clinical Genetics at Cedars Sinai Medical Center as well as an Assistant Clinical Professor of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles Medical School.

·         Michael Zuckerman, MD is a medical consultant for inThought responsible for expanding the inThought expert network of physicians and key opinion leaders.

·         Claudia Wiatr and Julie Hoggatt are both Senior Analysts at inThought covering pharmaceutical/biological agents and medical devices, respectively.

inThought Approvability Index

The inThought Approvability Index (IAI) is a dynamic tool that assesses the progress of a drug candidate through clinical development, evaluating strength of clinical data and trial design, benchmarked against historical parameters and likelihood to maintain forward momentum. Points are assigned for specific line items relating to safety, efficacy, and other factors in each phase of clinical development. Possible points total 100 upon drug approval, and are allocated in each phase according to the historical approval rate of similar drugs, such that the current points of a drug relate to its probability of approval. In addition, a letter grade is assigned and reflects the momentum of a drug candidate in its current phase, with "A" indicating significantly above average/likely to progress, "C" indicating average, and "F" indicating significantly below average/unlikely to progress.

Worldwide Revenue Forecast

inThought revenue forecasts employ a proprietary model developed to assess both currently approved and developmental drugs. Models are developed for a given therapeutic area using a “top-down” approach based on the addressable patient population, allowing for detailed assessment of a compound’s real or potential competitive landscapes. Epidemiological considerations include estimates of disease incidence, prevalence, growth rates, and death rates. Models are developed separately for the U.S., Europe, and Japan. inThought drug revenue models look seven years into the future and three years into the past. For developmental agents, the revenue forecast assumes the drug is approved. Risk adjusted valuations can be developed by multiplying the revenue potential, if approved, by the probability of approval as assessed by the IAI.